News, introspective, insight & opinion from around the NFL & NCAA

News, introspective, insight & opinion from around the NFL & NCAA
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

The “Brady Rule” is Making a Joke of the Quarterback Position

I get it. Carson Palmer got hit low in a playoff game and sat out for a long period of time. It sucked. Tom Brady got hit low and missed an entire season after leading the Patriots through an undefeated regular season the year before. It sucked. Nobody wants to see the star players of the NFL get injured, standing on the sidelines with no pads for long periods of time. I get it.

But that’s football. Injuries happen.

The personal fouls that were called against Baltimore’s defense on two hits (if you can even call them “hits”) on Tom Brady were horrendous and Ray Lewis had every right to make those statements after the game.

If you’re a football fan and don't know what I'm talking about, take a look for yourself.



Terrell Suggs was pushed well after Tom Brady released the ball, and fell into Brady’s legs. And the “Brady Rule” prohibits any hits on the knees or below of quarterbacks – whether the defender leads with his helmet or his shoulder.

However, Suggs barely grazed the leg of the golden boy of the NFL. In fact, there wasn’t even enough contact to make Brady go to the ground. Brady intentionally and successfully dodged Suggs, stayed on his feet and actually argued for a 15-yard penalty.

Are you kidding me?

The New England quarterback reacted in a way that a center in a professional basketball game argues for a charging foul (except there’s more contact on a charging foul in the NBA than there was on this play).

Of course, the roughing the passer call occurred on a critical third down and kept the drive alive. And of course, the Patriots converted that gift from the refs to seven points.

Earlier in the game, Baltimore defensive tackle Haloti Ngata was questionably penalized for roughing the passer and New England turned that into seven points as well.

Ray Lewis was absolutely right when he said, “it is embarrassing to the game.” The referees should be embarrassed. The NFL owners who lobbied for the “Brady Rule” should be embarrassed. And Tom Brady should be embarrassed (although I doubt he is).

The “Brady Rule” might as well include flags on the waist of the quarterback and eliminate contact on the QB all together. All the defender would have to do is pull the flag and that would count as a sack. Because if rules like this one keep being implemented, then the game is going to turn into something close to flag football.

When former Patriot and teammate of Tom Brady, Rodney Harrison, says that Brady should “take off the skirt,” you know that the penalty was a disgrace to the game of football. - Michael Klopman

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Friday, September 4, 2009

NFL Week #1 Preview

Week #1 in the NFL is the hardest to game because you don’t really know who will continue the trends they had last year and who will be able to reverse them. Here is some preliminary info for you on next week’s games.

Thursday, Sept 10

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) (O/U 35)

The Steelers put their first ranked defense up against the Titans second ranked defense.

• The Titans are 6-2 ATS and 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road.
• Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home and 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
• Pittsburgh is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against Tennessee.
• Pittsburgh is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Tennessee.
• Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee.

Sunday, Sept 13

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) (O/U 44.5)

The Colts put their 13th ranked offense up against the Jaguars 7th ranked defense

• The Colts are 7-3 ATS against the Jaguars
• The Jaguars lead the Colts 6-4 ATS
• The Colts lead the Jaguars 3-2 SU at home
• The Colts average 23.1 ppg against the Jaguars
• The Jaguars average 20.2 ppg against the Colts

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (EVEN) (O/U 43.5)

The Eagles put their 6th ranked offense up against the Panthers 7th ranked offense

• The Eagles lead the Panthers 4-2 SU
• The Eagles lead the Panthers 4-2 ATS
• The Eagles average 18.7 ppg against the Panthers
• The Panthers average 17.3 ppg against the Eagles
• The Panthers are 1-1 SU at home against the Eagles

Dallas Cowboys (-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 40.5)

The Cowboys put their 18th ranked offense up against the Bucs 19th ranked offense

• The Bucs lead the Cowboys 3-2 SU
• The Cowboys lead the Bucs 3-2 ATS
• The Cowboys average 12.8 ppg against the Bucs
• The Bucs average 14.4 ppg against the Cowboys
• The Bucs lead the Cowboys 2-0 SU at home
• The Cowboys are 2-0 SU in their last two meetings

NY Jets @ Houston Texans (-4.5) (O/U 43)

The Jets put their 9th ranked offense up against the Texans 17th ranked offense

• The Jets lead the Texans 3-0 SU
• The Jets lead the Texans 3-0 ATS
• The Jets average 24.7 ppg against the Texans
• The Texans average 10.7 ppg against the Jets
• The Jets are 1-0 SU against the Texans on the road

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (-10) (O/U 37)

The Chiefs put their 27th ranked offense up against the second best defense in the league

• The Chiefs lead the Ravens 3-2 SU
• The Chiefs lead the Ravens 3-2 ATS
• The Chiefs average 21.2 ppg against the Ravens
• The Ravens average 19.4 ppg against the Chiefs
• The Chiefs lead the Ravens 3-0 SU on the road
• The Ravens won their last meeting on the road

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals (-4) (O/U 44)

The Broncos put their 30th ranked defense up against the Bengals 19th ranked defense

• The Broncos lead the Bengals 5-2 SU
• The Bengals lead the Broncos 4-3 ATS
• The Broncos average 24.3 ppg against the Bengals
• The Bengals average 20.4 ppg against the Bengals
• The Broncos lead the Bengals 3-2 SU on the road
• The Broncos beat the Bengals last meeting

Minnesota Vikings (-4) @ Cleveland Browns (O/U 39.5)

The Vikings put their 12th ranked offense up against the Browns 30th ranked offense

• The Vikings lead the Browns 1-0 SU
• The Vikings lead the Browns 1-0 ATS
• The Vikings average 24 ppg against the Browns
• The Browns average 12 ppg against the Vikings

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints (-13) (O/U 44.5)

The Saints put their first ranked offense against the worst defense in the league

• The Saints and Lions have only played once in three years
• The Lions lead the Saints 3-2 SU
• The Lions lead the Saints 3-2 ATS
• The Saints beat the Lions 42-7 SU last meeting

Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons (-4) (O/U 43)

The Dolphins put their 21st ranked offense up against the Falcons 10th ranked offense

• The Dolphins are 2-2 SU against the Falcons
• The Falcons are 3-0 ATS against the Dolphins
• The Dolphins average 17 ppg against the Falcons
• The Falcons average 22.3 ppg against the Dolphins
• The Falcons lead the Dolphins 1-0 SU at home
• The Falcons won their last meeting

Washington Redskins @ NY Giants (-6.5) (O/U 38)

The Redskins put their 6th ranked defense up against the Giants 3rd ranked offense

• The Giants lead the Redskins 7-3 SU
• The Giants lead the Redskins 7-3 ATS
• The over/under is 3-7
• The Giants average 20.9 ppg against the Redskins
• The Redskins average 16.4 ppg against the Giants
• The Giants lead the Redskins 4-1 SU at home
• The Giants won their last meeting against the Redskins

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) (O/U 47)

The Cardinals put their 3rd ranked offense up against the Niners 23rd ranked defense

• The Cardinals lead the Niners 6-4 SU
• The Niners lead the Cardinals 5-4 ATS
• The Niners average 22.7 ppg against the Cardinals
• The Cardinals average 26.4 ppg against the Niners
• The Cardinals lead the Niners 3-2 SU at home
• The Cardinals won their last meeting at home
• The over/under is 7-3

St.Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-7) (O/U 43)

The Seahawks put their 25th ranked offense up against the Rams 31st ranked defense

• The Seahawks lead the Rams 8-2 SU
• The Seahawks lead the Rams 6-4 ATS
• The Seahawks average 27.1 ppg against the Rams
• The Rams average 20.5 ppg against the Seahawks
• The over/under is 4-5-1
• The Seahawks are 4-1 against the Rams at home
• The Seahawks won their last meeting on the road

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5) (O/U 44)

The Bears put their 14th ranked offense up against the Packers 5th ranked offense

• The Bears lead the Packers 7-3 SU
• The Bears lead the Packers 5-4-1 ATS
• The Bears average 19.6 ppg against the Packers
• The Packers average 17.2 ppg against the Bears
• The over/under is 4-6
• The Bears lead the Packers 4-1 SU on the road
• The Bears won their last meeting

Monday, Sept 14

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-10.5) (O/U 47.5)

The Bills put their 14th ranked defense up against the Patriots 8th ranked offense

• The Patriots lead the Bills 10-0 SU
• The Patriots lead the Bills 8-2 ATS
• The Patriots average 29 ppg against the Bills
• The Bills average 9.6 ppg against the Patriots
• The Patriots lead the Bills 5-0 SU at home
• The Patriots won their last meeting on the road

San Diego Chargers (-9) @ Oakland Raiders (O/U 44)

The Chargers put their 2nd ranked offense up against the Raiders 24th ranked defense

• The Chargers lead the Raiders 10-0 SU
• The Chargers lead the Raiders 10-0 ATS
• The Chargers average 29.4 ppg against the Raiders
• The Raiders average 12.5 ppg against the Chargers
• The Chargers lead the Raiders 5-0 SU on the road
• The Chargers won their last meeting at home

I would suggest that you play small out of the gate until you can get a feel for how these teams will perform. - - Robert Fairchild
Robert Fairchild is a professional sports gaming professional. He legally wages on professional and collegiate sporting events for a living. Robert is NOT suggesting that you quit your day job and try to wager on sports for a living. He is contributing his thoughts and experience to assist you in a recreational activity that you as an informed adult may choose to take part in.

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Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Purple Haze

Every season, unannounced rookies come in and dominate the fantasy football world. Last year we were witness to Steve Slaton, Matt Forte, and Matt Ryan. These guys were not as hyped as Jonathan Stewart or Rashard Mendenhall and that made them fantasy gold! They each outperformed their ADPs by 10+ rounds and carried many a team to fantasy titles.
Every now and again a player comes along that lives up to the hype. We know it’s not going to be Michael Crabtree this season. There is a universal man-crush on players like Knowshon Moreno and Beanie Wells. Some players are moving up the boards and are no longer flying under the radar. These players include Donald Brown, Bernard Scott, and James Davis. All of these players have the talent, but do they have the opportunity?

Percy Harvin is the one rookie that is best positioned for immediate success and he will live up to the hype (barring injury). Take that in for a moment. Out of all the glory praise for rookie RBs, I am touting a rookie WR to be my Rookie of the Year. Against the grain? Absolutely. About as against the grain as Harvin’s ACL snapping cuts…

This kid ran a 4.32 forty… as a freshman in high school

This kid was a National Champion in high school.

He was the #1 ranked high school player coming out… Rivals.com. (http://rivals100.rivals.com/viewrank.asp)

As a collegiate freshman, he was a National Champion, the SEC championship game MVP, and the SEC Rookie of the Year.

Now, he is in the NFL. He is a rookie again.

He is not going to be considered the best player on the field…

This is a kid that has proven time and again that he rises to the occasion.

The NFL is not going to be too fast for Harvin.

In fact, he may be too fast for the NFL…

Yes, he failed a drug test at the combine…

Yes, he may be a bit of a primadonna…

Yes, Florida Gator WRs generally don’t pan out…

Why am I so high on Harvin?

First, the NFL is a new challenge for him. New environments bring out his best.

Second, teammates like Adrian Peterson, Brett Favre, and the Minnesota Offensive Line.

Defenses have to strategically game-plan around stopping the established players in Purple Jesus and that ancient QB. He teams with the best running back in football and the best quarterback of this generation. This is going to leave the door wide open for one of the NFL’s newest and most dynamic playmakers to make an immediate impact on the game.

Harvin is a hybrid player – WR, RB, and sometimes QB. No one position is enough for this kid. He is going to get carries, he is going to get receptions, he is going to manage the wildcat, and he is going to score touchdowns. Who, on defense, is going to be able to cover Percy Harvin? If a team commits anyone to Harvin, Peterson and Favre are going to roll. Harvin is too fast for any linebacker or any safety and the cornerbacks already have their assignments. The Vikings coaching staff knows what they have here and defenses are not going to know what hit them. They are scripting a new chapter in the Minnesota playbook as we speak.

Percy Harvin is now in the NFL.

Can he slow the NFL game down as he slowed all of the other levels of play? He is an absolutely dominating player that doesn’t have a position… he has three. The best place for Percy Harvin is on the field. In this offense, he is the ultimate long distance threat. He’s everything you want Reggie Bush or Darren McFadden to be.

There’s a new sheriff in rookie town, and his name is Percy Harvin (aka Purple Haze). - Jack Winn
Jack Winn is a fantasy football sports columnist from the New York City area. A growing reputation for concrete insight is reflected not only in his articles, but in his yearly performance in fantasy leagues. As a 15 year commissioner of multiple high-end fantasy leagues, Jack understands the strategic thought process of many ultra-competitive gamers. His philosophical approach is conservatively aggressive and astonishingly effective. We hope you enjoy the content of his articles.

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Guess Late - Win More

Draft day is right around the corner. You are taking a few (too many) hours to prepare for your drafts. Where do you begin?

Find a generic cheat sheet, alter the sheets to suit your opinions, and make sure you leave it all out on the draft room floor. Are you going to be right? Are you going to be wrong? Are you going to be relevant? You’ll know by the last round of your drafts.

The draft room is where a plan for glory is mapped out… the challenge, the charts, the anxiety, and the choices. Confidence must be high. Execution must be flawless.

If drafts were easy, we wouldn’t draft. If winning leagues was easy, we wouldn’t play.

Fantasy football, like no other statistical pastime, truly meshes the thrill of victory with the agony of defeat. A loss on Sunday wrecks your mood for a week. A couple losses in a row and you are now down a month. Scrambling to make a comeback is no way to go through the fantasy season. Hit three and, uh, let’s not go there.

How do you avoid the misery?  How should you attack the draft?

Don’t try to be right in the first 5-6 rounds… know you are right. Reaching for players is best left for the later rounds. Drafting hunches leads to drafting for need, not value. Hope is not a winning strategy, folks. Reaching for players does not allow you to secure value. If you gamble early in the draft, you are going to be reaching for players throughout the remainder of your draft resulting in the reduced overall performance of your squad. Don’t get me wrong… you could be right with every pick, but the later you roll the dice the better your team will be. Reliability secures a competitive core.

I’ve reviewed many questions regarding draft strategy. Should I go RB-RB or RB-WR or RB-QB?
The simple answer is “YES, you should.” What do I mean “YES”?

Rigidity in a draft is the only strategy that is not viable. Every draft is unique… no two are alike. There may be trending similarities, but different players slide in different drafts. A concrete pre-draft strategy might make you feel prepared and secure, but champions capitalize on found money. Are you going to walk past a $100 bill because you’re too focused on getting somewhere? Something tells me that if you take a moment to alter your plan you will have more fun at your destination with that extra C-note in your wallet. It’s the same thing when you draft for value. It’s more fun to be in the playoffs than to watch the playoffs. Let’s face facts; we are all in it to win it. The flexibility to alter your draft preferences mid-draft will help you win leagues.

A core of reliable studs will get you farther than a core of educated guesses. Guess late, win more. Let someone else guess early… maybe they’ll be right, maybe they won’t. I reserve my guesses for lower tiered roster spots. The 3rd RB or 3rd WR are better spots for hunches than the more critical #1 and #2 spots at each position. I can’t take Jonathan Stewart as my #2 RB just because I think DeAngelo Williams is going down - that’s too risky a guess. Pierre Thomas is another example… I am on the 2009 Pierre Thomas bandwagon like many other people, but to grab him in the 2nd round is lunacy. There is way too much established talent still on the board to consider gambling on Pierre Thomas that early. While I agree that Pierre Thomas is well positioned to be highly successful and that most will consider his selection a calculated risk, the reality is that his sample size of production is too small to consider when regarding this player as a potential 2nd round draft pick. You will have more confidence in a team that showcases Greg Jennings and Steve Smith as your #1 & #2 WRs than you would with Pierre Thomas as your #2 RB. Do not wait until the end of your draft to recognize that. It is better to select a player that has fallen into your lap than reach for a player that is not yet established.

Buying the hype can be a slippery slope. Guessing right does stroke the ego, but guessing wrong early kills your season. Realistically, you cannot go through a draft without some quality guesswork, but the longer you can delay the guessing the better your team is going to be. In the early stages of a draft the only necessity is to secure quality players. Identifying and drafting the highest value at each turn builds your core by the 7th round. By Round 8 you’ll know where you stand and what you still need to do to round out your team. If you’ve drafted well, you can gamble with higher upside picks. Your core will produce every week and you can rotate your hunches in and out of the lower tier roster spots until someone steps up. This creates more long-term total upside for your team than rotating players in an out of your #1 or #2 RB or WR spots. Some of your hunches are going to pan out and become reliable scoring contributors. With a sound core, you give yourself time to determine who best completes your roster. With an unstable core you’ll have too many roster decisions week to week.

In 2008 you would have been much better off finding Matt Forte or Steve Slaton late rather than reaching for the overhyped Rashard Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart early. A sound core puts you in a position where the late hunch that works out puts your team over the top. You can say hindsight is 20/20 and you would be right, but foresight can also be close to 20/20.

Draft a reliable core to ensure being competitive. Use your wits to find the late gems that will put your team into title contention. - Jack Winn

Jack Winn is a fantasy football sports columnist from the New York City area. A growing reputation for concrete insight is reflected not only in his articles, but in his yearly performance in fantasy leagues. As a 15 year commissioner of multiple high-end fantasy leagues, Jack understands the strategic thought process of many ultra-competitive gamers. His philosophical approach is conservatively aggressive and astonishingly effective. We hope you enjoy the content of his articles.

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