If Lou Holtz predicts… (in a forest)

Does a betting line make a sound?

Last weekend Speculator in Chief Lou Holtz made a most bold prediction. Notre Dame will play for the championship in 2009!

Yep, you read that right. Notre Dame, who went 6-6 in regular season play in 2008, will be on the field in Pasadena, CA January 7, 2010 in a bid to snatch the BCS Championship trophy from the jaws of the Florida Gators. Leading the charge this year is QB Jimmy Clausen who completed 60.9% of his passes for 3,172 yards (3rd most prolific passing season in school history). Feeling a little better about Lou’s prediction?

Not so fast.

A look at the rest of the numbers tells the entire story.

In 2008, Jimmy Clausen ranked 43rd in passing efficiency. Overall, in 2008 young Jimmy ranked 40th in overall offense. The statistics seem to suggest that having Jimmy NOT throw the ball leads to a much more productive offense. Not the kind of thing that QBs typically include in their sports portfolio.

Defense then?

Well…no. The Notre Dame defense ranked 42nd in the nation in Scoring Defense and 39th in Total Defense overall. Coach Charlie Weis said he does expect to see some improvement in the overall ability of his defense to stop drives and get his offense back on the field. In 2008, Jon Tenuta helped the ND defense allow 61 fewer rushing yards per game in his first year as linebacker coach. Stopping the run and killing a drive is one thing, but in order for Notre Dame to keep their drives alive, they’ll have to run the ball themselves. In 2008, Notre Dame ranked a dismal 100th in the nation in Rushing Offense trailing those powerhouse schools Vanderbilt, La.-Monroe, and Troy.

So how will this team go from relative mediocrity one year, to the pinnacle of their respective sport the next? Recruitment? Inspiration? Congealment?

Nah, Lou Holtz would simply say “I had a hunch-back at Notre Dame”. - Paul Moyer

Paul Moyer is an independent contributor from Reading, PA, covering NCAA and NFL football.